Dag 41 - Aktiemarkedet WTF

Man bliver deprimeret af at følge aktiemarkedet. Det er som om kaosteorien hersker - en teori der måske bedst forklares af den såkaldte "butterfly" effekt: "Kaosteorien kan forklares som; når en sommerfugl blafrer med vingerne på den ene side af jorden, sættes en kædereaktion i gang, der ender med en storm på den anden side af jorden (kilde Wikipedia)".

Det er som om, at der kun skal en lille hændelse til et sted på jorden, så sættes en kædereaktion igang på alverdens aktiemarkeder. Robustheden i markedet er væk, og påvirkninger som tidligere ikke på nogen måde ville have påvirket markedet, slår nu igennem med stor effekt.

Det må være vanskeligt som professionel aktieanalytiker eller aktiehandler at navigere under sådanne forhold. Jeg følger selv een bestemt aktie (læserne af min blog ved hvilken), og her har jeg opgivet at finde logikken bag flere af de seneste kursfald. De fleste underliggende parametre for den langsomme med logiske kursstigninger er fortsat gældende, men en enkelt hændelse, der - hvis den ses i et større tidsmæssigt perspektiv - ikke har betydning, slår så markant igennem, og medfører et brat kursfald. Hmmm.

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